The wind energy industry faced numerous challenges in the year 2023, including inflation, equipment failures, and financial difficulties. However, the outlook for 2024 appears to be much more promising as governments prepare to approve additional projects worldwide.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, wind developers are projected to add 118 gigawatts of new wind capacity in 2024, a significant increase from the 82 gigawatts added in 2023. This growth trend is expected to continue, with installations exceeding 175 gigawatts by 2030, according to S&P Global’s projections.
It is important to note that the actual power generated by a turbine varies based on factors such as wind speed. Nevertheless, a gigawatt of power can theoretically provide electricity for anywhere between 225,000 and 300,000 homes for a year, as estimated by the U.S. Interior Department. This implies that the installations planned for 2024 will potentially be enough to power approximately 35 million homes.
S&P Global anticipates a substantial recovery in offshore wind projects. In the previous year, several major U.S. offshore wind initiatives were either cancelled or delayed due to escalating costs that outweighed expected profits. However, S&P Global predicts that over 60 gigawatts of new capacity, equivalent to Poland’s entire power demand, will be auctioned across at least 17 different markets this year — setting a new record for auctions.
The driving force behind this rebound is governments and utilities’ increased willingness to invest more in wind power. This is advantageous for companies involved in wind power installations as they can generate sufficient revenue to justify their investments. New York state has already raised payments to wind developers by double-digit percentages in recent months and set an ambitious target of 9 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2035, a significant increase from the current capacity of less than 1 gigawatt. Additionally, New Jersey has also announced new awards for two offshore wind projects, potentially adding 3.7 gigawatts of power. Previously, wind developer Orsted had to halt two projects in New Jersey due to rising costs that weren’t adequately compensated by utilities for the power the turbines would produce.
According to Edurne Zoco, an analyst at S&P Global, these new developments indicate that pricing structures are shifting to align with current market realities.
Signs of a rebound are already evident in wind energy company stocks. Orsted, the world’s largest wind developer, has experienced a 59% increase since reaching its lowest point in November, although it is still down 37% from a year ago. Similarly, Vestas, a notable turbine-maker, has seen a 52% increase since its lowest point.
In conclusion, despite the challenges faced in 2023, the wind energy industry is poised for a brighter future in 2024 and beyond. Increased governmental and utility support, along with growing investor confidence, indicates a promising growth trajectory for this renewable energy sector.
GE’s Energy Business Spin-Off Signals Revival in the Wind Turbine Division
One of the leading players in the energy industry, General Electric (GE), is gearing up to spin off its energy business into a separate entity named GE Vernova. This move comes at a crucial time as GE’s wind turbine division has been encountering challenges. However, there’s a glimmer of hope as the division recently secured its largest turbine order ever, indicating a potential revival.
Nevertheless, Western equipment manufacturers could face hurdles due to an emerging trend in wind energy. S&P Global data reveals that Chinese turbines outperform their Western counterparts in terms of power and cost-effectiveness. Previously, this wasn’t a significant concern as Chinese equipment was mainly utilized in domestic projects, leaving European and American suppliers to operate within their respective regions. However, the game has changed, with Chinese turbine makers now directly competing against Western companies. S&P Global highlights that the Chinese turbines are approximately 70% cheaper and boast a 30% higher rated capacity. This situation puts Western turbine makers in a tight spot, needing to regain profitability while safeguarding their market share amidst a technology race and pricing pressure.
This scenario mirrors what has already occurred in the solar power industry. China’s dominance in the market has caused prices to plummet, making it increasingly challenging for U.S. manufacturers to sustain their businesses. The Global Wind Energy Council’s data shows that China currently commands 60% of the wind turbine nacelle market share as of 2022. These nacelles serve as the crucial operational components of turbines.
Nonetheless, not everyone believes that China’s turbine advancements will necessarily spell doom for Western companies. American and European policymakers have passed laws incentivizing domestic production of renewable energy equipment. Evercore analyst James West suggests that although commoditization is inevitable, the benefits arising from initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Green Industrial New Deal should help U.S. and European firms stay competitive in the foreseeable future.