Impact of Israel Conflict on Cruise Operators

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Among the three major cruise operators, Carnival Corp. is facing the most significant blow due to the recent conflict in Israel, resulting in a downturn in its stock price. Analyst Daniel Politzer from Wells Fargo reveals that Royal Caribbean Group is expected to bear the brunt of Hamas’s surprise attack, with 14 scheduled sailings from Israel until the end of this year. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings comes next with ten planned sailings, followed by Carnival with six.

Looking ahead, Royal Caribbean has 15 sailings, Norwegian has six, and Carnival has ten scheduled from Israel for the first half of 2024.

Moreover, Politzer adds that “several sailings to Israel this week have been canceled or itineraries modified.” Consequently, all three cruise operators may face pricing challenges in the fourth quarter and the first quarter.

In terms of cruise capacity, Politzer suggests that Norwegian Cruise will experience the most significant impact, followed by Royal Caribbean and then Carnival.

Carnival’s stock has declined by 4.2% during afternoon trading, indicating its lowest closing point since June 5. It also ranks as the fifth worst performer on the S&P 500 index for the day.

Royal Caribbean’s stock has dropped by 2.7%, and Norwegian Cruise shares have experienced a decrease of 1.4%.

Politzer highlights that Royal Caribbean’s “Rhapsody of the Seas” and “Jewel of the Seas,” along with Carnival’s “Seabourn Escape,” are homeported in Israel’s main cruise port, Haifa. However, he acknowledges that ships sailing within the entire region are likely to be affected.

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