As we step into the spooky season, investors may feel a sense of unease. Historically, September has been the worst month for the stock market, and this year was no exception. In September, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 3.5% drop, marking its poorest monthly performance since February. Similarly, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite witnessed declines of 4.9% and 5.8% respectively, making it their worst month since December.
Multiple factors contributed to this decline. Inflation has remained a major concern for both investors and consumers, as oil prices continued to rise, inching closer to $100 per barrel.
This brings us to a crucial point. Investors were hopeful that efforts to combat rising prices would allow the Federal Reserve to cease interest rate hikes, or even potentially cut rates next year. However, Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank intends to keep rates higher for an extended period.
According to Eric Diton, President and Managing Director of The Wealth Alliance, the impact of interest rates is significant. In an interview with _, Diton emphasized how interest rates play a vital role when valuing stocks and projected earnings. Consequently, any alterations in interest rates can greatly impact their value.
In addition to these concerns, investors have also been wary of the government shutdown. Diton explains that such events lead to an immediate slowdown in the economy. As people stop receiving their paychecks and services come to a halt, the economy feels the ripple effects.
Despite these challenges, it’s essential for investors not to be paralyzed by fear. By staying informed and strategizing accordingly, they can navigate through these uncertain times with confidence.
October: A Historic Month for Investors
October has often been seen as a challenging period for investors, with notable financial crises like Black Monday in 1987, the crash of 1929, and the bank panic of 1907 occurring during this month. However, historical data tells us that October has actually been better than September for the stock market. Since its inception, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has seen an average increase of 0.5% in October, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have experienced respective average gains of 0.6% and 0.8%.
Some experts are observing signs of excessive negativity in the market. Diton believes that October has a tendency to mark significant turning points in stock market history, with many major bottoms occurring during this month. He predicts that the fourth quarter will bring positive results, including a positive October.
Cory Mitchell, an analyst from Trading.biz, shares a similar sentiment. While he acknowledges that there are no guarantees for this year, historically late September has been a good time to “buy the dip” in high-quality stocks in order to take advantage of the rally in October and November. He also notes that December tends to be a decent month historically.
Diton further points out that the market’s gains in 2023 have mainly been driven by a few tech companies. As the year concludes, there is potential for other stocks to rise and contribute to overall market growth. Despite some uncertainties, Diton remains optimistic, stating that he is not worried about significant declines.
As we move forward into October, investors are keeping a close eye on market trends and historical patterns. Only time will tell if this year follows the positive trend of past Octobers.