According to the Labor Department, the cost of imported goods fell by 0.2% in June. This marks a decline in import prices for every month this year, except for April. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street had predicted a smaller decline of 0.1%. Excluding fuel, import prices were down by 0.4% last month.
Key Details
On a year-on-year basis, import prices have decreased by 6.1%, which is the largest drop since May 2020. The cost of foreign-produced fuel, however, experienced a slight increase of 0.8% in June but remains significantly down by 36.4% over the past year. This represents the largest 12-month decline since May 2020. Nonfuel import prices have also fallen by 1.4% over the past 12 months.
Big Picture
Inflation is showing signs of moderation, primarily due to commodity prices. While energy prices were initially driving the decline, nonfuel prices are now also weakening. As a result of the soft inflation readings in June, economists are beginning to believe that the Federal Reserve will only raise interest rates one more time in July.
Market Reaction
On Friday, stocks (DJIA, +0.14% SPX, +0.85%) were anticipated to open on a higher note. Simultaneously, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.786%) dropped to 3.78%.