Cryptocurrencies were slightly higher Tuesday evening as investors waited for direction on the potential outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
The price of bitcoin was last higher by 2% at $69,105.03, according to Coin Metrics. Earlier, it rose as high as $70,522.84. It is currently 5% off its all-time high, after trading near it last week.
Stocks tied to the price of the cryptocurrency got a boost in earlier trading during regular stock market hours. Exchange operator Coinbase and MicroStrategy, which often trade as a high beta play on the price of bitcoin, advanced 4% and 2%, respectively.
Investors are expecting bitcoin trading to be choppy until a clear winner is declared. A victory for Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to bring risk of downside moves to the price of bitcoin, while traders anticipate a bump in price in the event of a win by former President Donald Trump.
“The election is having a massive influence on crypto,” said Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management. “Expect bitcoin – and crypto more broadly – to be choppy in the days ahead … until we have definitive election results.”
“If Trump wins, I believe we’ll see new all-time highs,” Rasmussen added. “If Harris wins, I expect a decent short-term sell-off, with prices taking a month or two to recover. But eventually, either way, I think we go higher.”
Bitcoin is widely expected to rise to a new record in coming weeks. In the 2012, 2016 and 2020 elections, bitcoin saw returns of roughly 87%, 44% and 145% in the 90 days following election day, respectively. That’s in part because election years happen to fall on Bitcoin halving years, when the supply of the cryptocurrency ratchets downward. Post election returns have also tended to align with major Federal Reserve policy shifts. This year, the market is looking forward to further interest rate reductions.
Earlier Tuesday, bitcoin wavered around the $70,000 mark, after hitting that level last week for the first time since March and approaching its record of $73,797.68. At about $69,000, bitcoin has been trading at its fair value price, according to CryptoQuant. That means that if the election proves to be a positive catalyst in the coming days, bitcoin can rally and is poised to establish a new record, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno said.
“For now, everyone we’ve spoken to is keeping their powder dry,” said James Davies, CEO at crypto futures and options trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange. “I’ve heard from numerous leading market makers and traders and can say with conviction that almost everyone is set up to react. They don’t even know which way markets will go based on [the] result. There’s likely to be massive short-term volatility whichever outcome.”
This year’s presidential election has been called the most important one in the crypto industry’s lifetime. Many view a Harris win as a threat to crypto, the extent to which has been debated throughout this election cycle. Trump, on the other hand, is seen by many as a force for good in the industry after he presented himself earlier this year as the pro-crypto candidate and has been courting the industry more directly than Harris has.